Guide to Tools for Tracking Flames Metrics
In the modern era of hockey, data and analytics have become indispensable for understanding team performance, player contributions, and strategic trends. For followers of the Calgary Flames, navigating the vast landscape of statistics requires familiarity with key metrics and the tools used to track them. This guide defines essential terminology, from foundational stats to advanced analytics, providing you with the lexicon needed to deepen your analysis of the Flames' progress throughout the 2023-24 NHL season.
Corsi (CF%)
Corsi, often expressed as a percentage (CF%), measures shot attempt differential at even strength. It counts all shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots for and against a team when a specific player is on the ice. A CF% above 50% indicates a player or line is controlling the flow of play and generating more offensive opportunities than they allow, a key indicator of territorial dominance used extensively in Flames stats and metrics analysis.
Fenwick (FF%)
Fenwick is a shot attempt metric similar to Corsi but excludes blocked shots, counting only shots on goal and missed shots. The resulting Fenwick For percentage (FF%) is considered by some analysts to be a purer measure of puck possession and scoring chance generation, as it filters out the variable of shot-blocking skill. It is particularly useful for evaluating sustained offensive zone pressure.
Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG) is an advanced metric that assigns a probability value to every unblocked shot attempt based on historical data of similar shots becoming goals. Factors like shot location, type, and rush context are weighted. For the Flames, tracking a player's or line's xG for and against helps quantify the quality—not just quantity—of chances they create and surrender, offering insight beyond the raw scoreboard.
Goals Above Replacement (GAR)
Goals Above Replacement is a catch-all value metric that estimates a player's total contribution, measured in goals, compared to a readily available replacement-level player. It aggregates a player's impact in even-strength offense, defense, power play, and penalty kill, while also accounting for penalties taken and drawn. It is a comprehensive tool for assessing a player's overall worth to the roster.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Building on GAR, Wins Above Replacement converts a player's goal contribution into an estimated win value. It contextualizes how many more wins a player provides the team compared to a replacement-level counterpart. This metric is invaluable for front offices, like that of GM Craig Conroy, in evaluating contract value and roster construction across the league.
High-Danger Chances (HDCF%)
High-Danger Chances track shot attempts originating from the most dangerous areas on the ice, typically the slot and inner crease. The percentage (HDCF%) shows the share of these premium chances a team controls with a given player on the ice. Monitoring this for players like Jonathan Huberdeau or Nazem Kadri reveals their ability to drive and finish high-quality offense.
PDO
PDO is the sum of a team's or player's on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength. The result typically regresses toward 100 over time, making it a useful "luck" indicator. A PDO significantly above 100 suggests unsustainable good fortune, while one below it may indicate poor puck luck. It helps contextualize hot or cold streaks for the Flames or a goalie like Jacob Markström.
Point Shares (PS)
Point Shares is a metric that allocates team points in the standings to individual players, estimating their contribution to the total. It incorporates offensive and defensive performance for skaters and goaltenders. For a team navigating the competitive Pacific Division, understanding which players are driving point accumulation is critical for lineup decisions.
Game Score
Game Score is a single-game performance metric that provides a quick, comprehensive snapshot of a player's impact. It incorporates goals, assists, shots, blocks, faceoffs, and other box score stats into one value. It's an excellent tool for immediately evaluating a standout performance from a rookie like Connor Zary or a veteran after a key Battle of Alberta matchup.
Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)
Goals Saved Above Expected is the premier metric for evaluating goaltenders beyond traditional save percentage. It compares the number of goals a goalie actually allowed to the number of goals they were expected to allow based on the quality (xG) of shots faced. Markström's GSAx is a true measure of his ability to steal games for the Flames.
Zone Starts (Off. Zone Start %)
This metric shows the percentage of a player's non-neutral zone faceoffs that begin in the offensive zone. A high offensive zone start percentage indicates a player is often deployed for offensive situations, while a low percentage suggests a defensive or checking role. Head coach Ryan Huska uses this data to optimize player deployment and matchups.
Relative Metrics (e.g., CF% Rel)
Relative metrics, such as Corsi Relative (CF% Rel), measure a player's on-ice percentage compared to their team's percentage when they are off the ice. A positive CF% Rel means the team's shot attempt share improves when that player is on, highlighting their individual impact on driving play irrespective of their teammates' performance.
Quality of Competition (QoC)
Quality of Competition measures the average caliber of opponents a player faces, often using an opponent's time-on-ice or metrics like Corsi as a proxy. It helps determine if a player is being sheltered with easier minutes or is tasked with shutting down the league's top lines, a crucial factor in evaluating defensive performance.
Quality of Teammates (QoT)
Conversely, Quality of Teammates measures the average caliber of a player's most frequent linemates. It provides context for a player's statistics; strong results with weak QoT can indicate a player carrying a line, while strong results with strong QoT may reflect benefiting from elite companionship. This is key in assessing chemistry within the Flames' lineup.
On-Ice Shooting Percentage (oiSH%)
On-Ice Shooting Percentage is the percentage of shots on goal taken by a player's team that result in goals while that player is on the ice at even strength. While influenced by skill, it is also subject to significant variance and regression. A sustained high oiSH% for a line can indicate elite finishing talent or unsustainable luck.
On-Ice Save Percentage (oiSV%)
On-Ice Save Percentage is the save percentage of a team's goaltender when a specific skater is on the ice at even strength. For skaters, this metric can reflect defensive impact, but it is heavily influenced by goaltender performance and random variance. It is often analyzed in tandem with PDO to assess stability in results.
Individual Point Percentage (IPP)
Individual Point Percentage measures the percentage of on-ice goals for a player's team at even strength that the player recorded a point on. A very high IPP (e.g., over 80%) can suggest a player is a primary driver of offense for their line, while a lower one might indicate they are more of a complementary piece or are experiencing poor point luck.
Rush Attempts
Rush Attempts track shot attempts that occur off entries into the offensive zone with controlled possession and speed before the defense is fully set. This metric identifies players and teams that excel in generating offense from transition, a critical element in today's fast-paced game and a potential area of focus for the Flames' system under Huska.
Defensive Zone Giveaways
While standard giveaways are tracked, the context of where they occur is vital. Defensive zone giveaways are particularly costly turnovers that lead directly to high-danger chances against. Minimizing these is a fundamental focus for any coaching staff and a key indicator of a player's puck management under pressure.
Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%)
Expected Goals For Percentage weighs shot attempts by their quality (xG) to calculate the share of total expected goals a team controls with a player on the ice. It is considered one of the most predictive metrics for future goal share and team success, making it a cornerstone of modern Flames stats and metrics analysis.
Penalty Differential
Penalty Differential is the difference between penalties drawn and penalties taken by a player. A positive differential indicates a player who consistently puts his team on the power play, a valuable and often underrated skill. Players who drive this positive differential provide a tangible strategic advantage over the course of a season.
Faceoff Win Percentage (FO%)
While a straightforward stat, faceoff win percentage remains a critical tool, especially in key game situations. Dominance in the circle provides immediate puck possession, directly impacting flames-power-play-efficiency-metrics and defensive zone exits. It is a tracked benchmark for centers like Kadri.
Scoring Chance Contributions
This metric tallies a player's direct involvement in generating scoring chances, combining individual chances created with primary assists on chances created by teammates. It moves beyond points to credit players who consistently drive dangerous offense, offering a deeper look at flames-scoring-chance-contributions from playmakers and shooters alike.
Time On Ice (TOI) / Average Time On Ice (ATOI)
Time On Ice, particularly its average (ATOI), is a fundamental measure of player deployment and trust from the coaching staff. It is broken down into even-strength (EV TOI), power play (PP TOI), and penalty kill (PK TOI) to show a player's role and special teams responsibility within the Flames' system.
Home Ice Advantage Metrics
While not a single stat, analysts often track performance differentials between home and road games using metrics like CF%, xGF%, and PDO. For the Flames, evaluating performance at the Scotiabank Saddledome—fueled by the C of Red—compared to the road can reveal tangible advantages or areas needing improvement regardless of venue.
Mastering this glossary of metrics transforms passive viewing into active, insightful analysis. By understanding the tools that measure possession, chance quality, and individual impact, you can better interpret the Flames' strategies, evaluate player performance beyond the scoresheet, and engage more deeply with the narratives of the current season. These metrics provide the framework through which the progress of the team in the Western Conference can be objectively tracked and understood.
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